Burnout Prediction and Analysis in Shift Workers: Counterfactual Explanation Approach

Ziang Tang; Zachary King; Alicia Choto Segovia; Han Yu; Gia Braddock; Asami Ito; Ryota Sakamoto; Motomu Shimaoka; Akane Sano

Abstract

Shift work disrupts sleep and causes chronic stress, resulting in burnout syndrome characterized by emotional exhaustion, depersonalization, and decreased personal accomplishment. Continuous biometric data collected through wearable devices contributes to mental health research. However, direct prediction of burnout risk is still limited, and interpreting machine learning models in healthcare poses challenges. In this paper, we develop machine learning models that utilize wearable and survey data, including rhythm features, to predict burnout risk among shift workers. Additionally, we employ the DiCE (Diverse Counterfactual Explanations) framework to generate interpretable explanations for the ML model, aiding in the management of burnout risks. Our experiments on the AMED dataset show that incorporating rhythm features significantly enhances the predictive performance of our models. Specifically, sleep and heart rate features have emerged as significant indicators for accurately predicting burnout risk.

Keywords: burnout syndrome; counterfactual explanation; machine learning; risk prediction; shift workers

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